As Iran seeks negotiating leverage, risks of miscalculation multiply

Details: Iran’s nuclear and regional actions have 3 goals:

1. Increase costs for the U.S., to deter further pressure or attack by demonstrating willingness to hit back.
2. Receive economic concessions from the remaining signatories to the nuclear deal (Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the EU), such as purchases of Iranian oil.
3. Build leverage for future talks, even if Trump is reelected but especially if a Democrat succeeds him.

Between the lines: Iran’s steps have been calibrated to avoid the immediate collapse of the nuclear agreement or a military response from the U.S. or Israel.

• The attacks in the Gulf did not result in loss of life, and Iran’s nuclear steps are all reversible. Tehran is building leverage, not a bomb.

But, but, but: Despite Iran’s deliberate approach, the danger of miscalculation is high.

• As Iran racks up nuclear deal violations, it risks pushing away its European friends — not necessarily into the arms of the Trump administration, but toward the conclusion that the nuclear deal is not worth saving.
• As Tehran turns up the temperature in the region, the greatest risk is the killing of a U.S. soldier or diplomat. Even a president who campaigned on ending U.S. wars in the Middle East would be hard-pressed not to respond militarily.

Henry Rome is an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group.

The big picture: The hacking attempts were not technologically complicated, and often involved using personal information found through research to reset victim passwords, including breaching a user’s backup email account to leverage access to a primary Microsoft-managed account.

• The group Microsoft believes is behind the hacks is well-documented and directed by the Iranian government. In different naming schemes, it is called APT 35, Charming Kitten, The Ajax Security Team and Phosphorus.

The motive of the hackers is not immediately clear. Though election tampering is likely at the front of the American psyche for the U.S. targets, most foreign espionage is just espionage — spying to gain information to better understand global affairs and negotiations.

Go deeper: For hacked campaigns, 2020 might as well be 2016

• Johnson asked the Justice Department earlier this week to look into links between Ukraine and Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. His letter questioned the narrative that Biden's actions in Ukraine had nothing to do with his son's connection.
• However, it was also discovered that he signed onto a 2016 letter that mirrored Biden's work to reform Ukraine's prosecutor general and judiciary.
• There is no evidence that Biden's reform work in Ukraine was to protect his son's business dealings, as the president and some of his allies allege, or that he committed any form of corruption.

The state of play: Sondland, a Trump political appointee who donated $1 million to the president's inaugural committee, denied that there was a quid pro quo between the Trump administration and Ukraine's government in a series of text messages that former Ukraine special envoy Kurt Volker provided to a group of House committees investigating the Trump-Ukraine matter.

• "I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign," Bill Taylor, the top U.S. diplomat to Ukraine, texted Sondland.
• Sondland texted back: "Bill, I believe you are incorrect about President Trump's intentions. The President has been crystal clear no quid pro quo's of any kind."
• The New York Times reported that Sondland's response came only after he spoke to the president.

Go deeper: House committees release texts from former Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker

Volker's 5 big points:

1. "[M]y efforts were entirely focused on advancing U.S. foreign policy goals with respect to Ukraine."
2. "I became concerned that a negative narrative about Ukraine, fueled by assertions made by Ukraine’s departing Prosecutor General, was reaching the President of the United States, and impeding our ability to support the new Ukrainian government as robustly as I believed we should."
3. "[A]t no time was I aware of or took part in an effort to urge Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Biden."
4. "[W]hile executing my duties, I kept my colleagues at the State Department and National Security Council informed, and also briefed Congress, about my actions."
5. "I strongly supported the provision of U.S. security assistance, including lethal defensive weapons, to Ukraine throughout my tenure."

Read his opening remarks in full:

Go deeper: House committees release texts from former Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker