Exclusive: John Bolton hits Trump for bluffing on North Korea nukes

Why now? The president's former national security adviser, who served until September, is speaking out ahead of an end-of-year timetable. If Kim Jong-un follows through on his threatened Christmas provocation, Bolton says the White House should do something "that would be very unusual" for this administration: admit they got it wrong on North Korea.

• "The idea that we are somehow exerting maximum pressure on North Korea is just unfortunately not true," Bolton said.
• For example, he said, the U.S. Navy could start intercepting oil that is illegally being transferred to North Korea at sea.
• As Bolton sees it, the administration now has more of a "rhetorical policy" that it's unacceptable for North Korea to have nuclear weapons that could hit America or its allies.
• If Kim thumbs his nose at the U.S., Bolton said, he hopes the administration will say: "We've tried. The policy's failed. We're going to go back now and make it clear that in a variety of steps, together with our allies, when we say it's unacceptable, we're going to demonstrate we will not accept it."
• Bolton described his concerns about Trump's North Korea strategy in an interview with Axios late last week. He went significantly further than any of his previous remarks since leaving the administration.

Why it matters: Kim is back on his white horse, and the North Korean nuclear threat may be greater than ever, analysts say.

• North Korea has intimated it will test some kind of advanced weapons in the coming weeks — weapons it's developed as Trump has tried to woo Kim.
• Trump's top envoy to North Korea, Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, said recently that if North Korea follows through on that threat, it would be "most unhelpful in achieving a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula."
• Bolton called Biegun's statement "a late entry but a clear winner in the Understatement of the Year Award contest."

Bolton, who has advocated for a more aggressive North Korea strategy, also criticized Trump for saying earlier this year that Kim's short-range missile tests don't bother him.

• "When the president says, 'Well, I'm not worried about short-range missiles,' he's saying, 'I'm not worried about the potential risk to American troops deployed in the region or our treaty allies, South Korea and Japan.'"

The big picture: The imminent threats from North Korea seem a world away from June 2018, when Trump returned from his Singapore summit with Kim to boast, "There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea."

• In reality, Kim has expanded his nuclear arsenal since then, analysts say.
• Using data from analysts and governments around the world, Japan's Nagasaki University estimated in June that Kim now has as many as 30 nuclear warheads. That's on the lower end of estimates, and it's up from as many as 20 warheads in the same study last year.
• "Even though they're not testing right now, they're operating at full tempo," said Victor Cha, the National Security Council director for Asia under President George W. Bush and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
• The Trump administration declined to comment.

Between the lines: Daniel Russel, President Obama's assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said that of the two leaders —Trump and Kim — only one appears to have had a strategy.

• Trump broke with precedent, met twice with the isolated dictator and said "we fell in love" over "beautiful letters."
• Russel described Trump's approach to Kim as "magical thinking, based on a narcissistic conviction that the tractor beam of Donald Trump's charisma was going to capture the Leninist dictator and pull him into some kind of condo-developing frenzy of good behavior."
• Despite Trump's charm offensive, Kim's nuclear arsenal has only grown.

Trump's warming of relations also signaled to China — the country with the most power to constrain Kim — that it could stop enforcing United Nations sanctions against North Korea, Russel said.

• Since Trump's Singapore summit with Kim, North Korea analysts including Russel and Cha have said that the economic pressure on Kim has softened noticeably.
• China has turned a blind eye as more money crossed the border into North Korea and more oil was illegally transferred at sea. And last week, China and Russia asked the U.N. Security Council to soften sanctions on Kim.

The bottom line: "We're now nearly three years into the administration with no visible progress toward getting North Korea to make the strategic decision to stop pursuing deliverable nuclear weapons," Bolton said.

• "Time is on the side of the proliferator," Bolton said. "The more time there is, the more time there is to develop, test and refine both the nuclear component and the ballistic missile component of the program."

Go deeper:

• Evidence of new work at North Korea site linked to long-range missiles
• Trump aides fear John Bolton's secret notes
• John Bolton lays into Trump's foreign policy approach in private speech

• Officials evacuated tens of thousands of people largely in coastal regions of southeastern New South Wales and Victoria ahead of the increased danger expected over the weekend, per the Washington Post.

The state of play: A statewide total fire ban is still in place for NSW, where high heat and winds have exacerbated fire conditions, per the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) — confirming officials' fears of conditions deteriorating over this weekend. There are 148 fires burning across NSW, 64 of which are not contained.

• A 47-year-old man died defending a friend's rural NSW property on Saturday morning, authorities confirmed. (All times listed are in AEDT.)
• Strong gusts moving southeast, where most of the state's fires are raging, were forecast by the BOM into early Sunday, when "damaging" winds of up to 40 mph hit coastal suburbs of Sydney, Wollongong, Port Kembla and Kiama,
• After a day of "significant fire weather for eastern Victoria and New South Wales, today milder conditions will be more favourable for our emergency service partners and for affected communities," the BOM said Sunday afternoon. The NSW Rural Fire Service said the threat is "still not over."

In Victoria, evacuation orders were issued in the afternoon for fire-threatened communities in the east of the state, where seven people are missing.

In South Australia, a 78-year-old father and his 43-year-old son were killed in a blaze Saturday morning on Kangaroo Island, where over 150,000 acres of land has burned, The Advertiser reports.

In New Zealand, Police issued a statement urging people not call the emergency number "to report the orange haze in the sky caused by the Australian bush fires" after taking several calls on the issue.

The big picture: Morrison announced Sunday the establishment of the National Bushfire Recovery Agency from the media.

• Australia is calling on 3,000 Defense Force Reservists to help fight the fires, Morrison said earlier. He was later forced to defend his leadership after it emerged the NSW fire chief learned from the media about the deployment plans.
• A fundraiser by Australian comedian Celeste Barber for NSW rural fighters has raised over AU$20 million (U.S.$ 13 million) in 48 hours. People across Australia and the world have pledged money to Aussie firefighting brigades, including the U.S. singer P!nk.

Go deeper:

• In photos: Deadly wildfires rage across Australia
• Australia's wildfires cause New Zealand glaciers to turn brown

Editor's note: This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates.

Why it matters: The drone strike that resulted in Soleimani's death is the most direct confrontation from the U.S. since the Trump administration pulled out of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran has vowed to take revenge, according to IRNA.

• Experts including Ryan Goodman, the former special counsel at the Department of Defense, have pointed out that attacking cultural sites is a war crime.
• Trump has faced criticism over the strike that killed Soleimani from some world leaders and members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The big picture: The body of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani has arrived back in Iran, as President Trump issued fresh threats against Iran over Saturday night.

• A funeral procession began in Ahvaz Sunday for Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis after their bodies in the southern Iranian city, a senior Iraqi-Iranian militia commander who also died in the U.S. strike in Iraq Friday, per the official IRNA, which reports their bodies will be transferred to other cities in Iran, including Tehran.
• Iraqi officials and Iranian-backed militias reported another deadly airstrike in Iraq 24 hours after the U.S. killed Soleimani, AP reports. It left five dead, as thousands gathered in Baghdad Saturday to mourn Soleimani and al-Muhandis.
• On Saturday, several rockets fell inside Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, the Jadriya neighborhood and the Balad airbase housing U.S. troops, but there were no reported deaths, the Iraqi military said, per Al Jazeera.
• Iraq's parliament is holding an emergency session Sunday, Reuters reports.
• NATO has suspended training missions in Iraq after Soleimani's death, citing security concerns, the Washington Post reports.

The decision to strike: U.S. officials say they acted following the death of an American contractor the Friday before Christmas in Iraq by Iranian-sponsored militia groups. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed Soleimani was "actively" planning an attack on Americans, the Washington Post reports.

• Trump said he's not looking to change the Iranian regime, per the New York Times.

Global reaction:

• Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who formally resigned a month ago, said the attack will lead to a "dangerous escalation," NPR reports.
• Russia condemned the attack and blasted the Trump administration for refusing to use official channels, such as turning to the UN Security Council following protests at American embassies in Iraq, per NPR.
• U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the Royal Navy was escorting British-flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf and that under international law, "the United States is entitled to defend itself against those posing an imminent threat to its citizens."
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supported the U.S. and said, "Qassim Soleimani is responsible for the deaths of many American citizens and many other innocent people," the BBC reports.
• China appealed for restraint on all sides, but added, "The dangerous [U.S.] military operation violates the basic norms of international relations and will aggravate regional tensions and turbulence," per Al Jazeera.

What to watch: Iran is "likely" to launch a cyberattack against the U.S. following the death of Soleimani, AP reports.

• The disruptions could target American manufacturing facilities, oil and gas plants and transit systems. U.S. cybersecurity officials warn businesses and government agencies to be cautious, per AP.

What's next: The White House is preparing to present partners and allies with intelligence on the "imminent threat" it says prompted this attack, said Kirsten Fontenrose, who served on the National Security Council earlier in the Trump administration, during an Atlantic Council conference call.

• The administration is sending more U.S. troops to the region, with roughly 3,500 troops in Fort Bragg, N.C. preparing to go to Kuwait.

Go deeper:

• The next move on Iran
• How Trump decided to kill Iran's Soleimani

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comments by Trump, Pelosi and Wallace.

• A Kenyan military official told Reuters Al-Shabab was behind the raid.
• Al Shabab claimed the attack caused "severe casualties on both American and Kenyan troops stationed there," per Al Jazeera. This claim was unconfirmed.
• The Kenya Defence Forces statement said the "attempted breach" was "successfully repulsed," the Manda Air Strip was safe and that "four terrorist bodies have so far been found."

Go deeper: Don't forget al Qaeda

Editor's note: This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates.

• Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said he considers the move an "act of aggression against Iraq" that would "light the fuse of war."

Trump issued a warning to Iran on Saturday evening, tweeting that the U.S. has "targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 Americans taken in the Iran hostage crisis of 1979-1981)" and that the United States will strike "if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets."

What else he's saying:

"Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently....

....hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have.....

....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!"

Details: The 1973 War Powers Act gives the president 48 hours to report to lawmakers the act of introducing military forces into armed conflict overseas.

• Trump claimed on Friday that the U.S. drone strike that killed Soleimani was not intended to start a war.

Go deeper: Sanders, Ro Khanna push to block funds for military force against Iran

What he's saying:

"America has always sanctioned and besieged Black and Brown bodies both at home and abroad. America militarism is the weapon wielded by American imperialism, to enforce its policing and plundering of the non white world.

There is nothing new about American terrorist attacks against Black and Brown people for the expansion of American imperialism."

Go deeper: Nike's Colin Kaepernick shoes sell out on first day

In photos:

Go deeper: The next move on Iran