GOP allies warn vaping ban will sink Trump in 2020

What we're hearing: "While parents may be concerned about e-cigarettes, the people who genuinely care about vaping as a voting issue so far outweighs the number of people Trump needs to win in 2020 that they are royally screwing themselves by doing this," Paul Blair, the director of strategic initiatives at Americans for Tax Reform, tells me.

• Suburban moms concerned about vaping "don't have the same voter intensity on this as adult vapers do," an industry lobbyist said.
• Florida, which Trump won by 113,000 voters, had about 873,000 adult vapers in 2016. They reason that if 1 in 8 vapers turn against Trump in 2020 because he foreclosed their vaping options, it could jeopardize the election.

Why it matters: If Trump backs away from proposed enforcement policy, it would be the second time in recent weeks that political concerns prompted him to dial back government regulations.

• Trump's openness this summer to expanded background checks cooled after the gun lobby and campaign advisers warned about bad internal polling.

Our thought bubble: There are four unsubstantiated assumptions about adult vapers in the case being presented to Trump:

1. They start out as Trump voters.
2. They wouldn't vape anymore if they couldn't get the flavors.
3. They are single-issue voters around vaping rights.
4. The eventual Democratic nominee would be more vape-friendly.

Still, the math can't be totally ignored, especially in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Trump's 2016 win margins were so narrow and the number of adult vapers is relatively high.

By the numbers: More than 4 million people in swing states regularly used e-cigarettes in 2016, according to FDA-funded survey data published last year in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

• Industry experts say that number has increased significantly in recent years.

Behind the scenes: The White House scheduled a listening session with conservative groups last Thursday after receiving intense backlash from GOP leaders and industry execs following the announcement of the ban.

• Among the invitees: The Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Goldwater Institute, AFT and the Vapor Technology Association.
• But roughly 24 hours after invitations went out, the meeting was canceled.
• "They’re in chaos mode on this stuff because the backlash has been so resoundingly overpowering," one invitee said.
• A White House official says the meeting is expected to be rescheduled.

The bottom line: The political pressure points regarding the ban have gotten Trump's attention.

• Shortly after the proposed ban was announced, Trump tweeted that he still likes vaping as an alternative to cigarettes.
• Trump's 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale also hit back at a Trump follower who tweeted that banning vaping products is "not on brand with MAGA."
• One administration official said the tweets were prompted by a flood of criticism from conservative leaders.

Between the lines: The four biggest stories about Sanders and Iran were about the senator introducing legislation, along with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), to block "Pentagon funding for any unilateral actions" taken by President Trump "to wage war against Iran without congressional authorization."

The big picture: Sanders' frequent criticisms of America's involvement in "endless wars" have boosted his case about the urgency of prioritizing domestic issues — and also served as an attack on his opponents for supporting the Iraq War, which became deeply unpopular.

• Sanders, who hammered Hillary Clinton in 2016 for voting to authorize the war in 2002, has also gone after Joe Biden for the vote.
• Among the stories that generated the most interactions about 2020 candidates and Iran was a piece from progressive magazine The Nation: "Bernie Sanders Is the Anti-War Candidate."

By the numbers: Of the 100 biggest stories about 2020 candidates and Iran since last Thursday, stories about Sanders generated 877k interactions on social media (likes, comments, shares).

• That's more than 200,000 more than Joe Biden, the next highest.

Our 2020 attention tracker is based on data from NewsWhip exclusively provided to Axios as part of a project that will regularly update throughout the 2020 campaign.

See all past editions of the tracker here.

The state of play:

• Tsai's campaign invoked imagery of the months-long Hong Kong protests, and advocated for a Taiwanese identity separate from mainland China's, the Wall Street Journal writes.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping previously signaled the need to bring Taiwan under the control of the Communist Party using the "one country, two systems" model, the same system used in Hong Kong, per the Wall Street Journal.
• Yes, but: Beijing’s heavy-handed approach with Hong Kong has shown Taiwanese voters what “one country, two systems” really means — and they "don't want Taiwan to become another Hong Kong," voter Chen Ya-ting told the WSJ.

Go deeper: China steps up political interference ahead of Taiwan's elections

• Iran's General Staff of Armed Forces said Flight 752 was shot down "unintentionally" after departing from Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran, per a statement cited by the Washington Post.
• In a tweet, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the crash was the result of "U.S. adventuring," adding, "Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.”

Context: Iran repeatedly denied accusations that it was responsible for the crash. The head of Iran's national aviation department said at a press conference on Friday, "What is obvious for us, and what we can say with certainty, is that no missile hit the plane."

• U.S. and allied intelligence assessments indicated that Iranian missiles downed the aircraft amid increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
• The New York Times obtained a video on Thursday that appears to show an Iranian missile hitting a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran's airport — where the flight "stopped transmitting its signal."
• Wednesday's crash came hours after Iran fired missiles at two bases in Iraq that housed American forces in retaliation for the U.S. killing Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

Go deeper... What we know: Ukrainian Boeing 737 crashes in Tehran

The state of play: American firefighters joined those in New South Wales and Victoria this week, along with the Australian Defense Force and some 3,000 Defense Force Reservists to help tackle fires that have killed at least 25 people this bushfire season.

• U.S. firefighters joined efforts in Victoria on Saturday, putting in control lines in Mount Buffalo National Park.

In Victoria, a state of disaster declaration was not renewed after midnight on Jan. 11, due to milder conditions. Weather is forecast to be steady for the next few days, with more moisture in the air to limit fire behavior and aid containment, Incident Controller Paul Bates said Saturday evening.

• "We're a long way from the end of this. We're at only mid-January, and we've got a long way to go in terms of our fire season," Neville said Saturday.
• "We've still got several weeks of this fire to go," Bates emphasized.

In New South Wales, there are roughly 135 bush and grass fires burning. Nearly 50 fires were uncontained as of early Sunday morning, NSW Rural Fire Service said — and all fires have been downgraded to the lowest emergency warning.

The impact: Since September, Australia's bushfires have claimed the lives of 19 people in New South Wales, three in Victoria and three in South Australia, per Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

• At least 25 million acres of land have burned, including 12 million in NSW, per News.com.au.
• 2,097 homes have been destroyed since Jan. 1, according to the NSW Rural Fire Service's latest update.

The big picture: The intense heat has caused more than 20 firestorms — or unusual thunderstorms partially fueled by heat from the flames — over the past week, according to NASA, which notes that "strong winds from these storms can fan fires into raging infernos." Smoke particles from the fires have spread east over the Pacific Ocean.

Go deeper:

• In photos: Deadly wildfires rage across Australia
• Australia's wildfires cause New Zealand glaciers to turn brown

Editor's note: This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates.

By the numbers: Sanders is the top choice for president for 20% of likely attendees to the Democratic caucus, the poll shows. Warren stands in second place at 17% and Buttigieg takes third at 16%, while Joe Biden stands at 15%.

Methodology: The latest poll tallied 701 likely Democratic caucus-goers from Jan. 2-8. The poll's margin of error is -/+ 3.7 percentage points.

• Due to the poll's margin of error, all four top candidates are in a statistical dead heat.

Be smart: Sanders clawed back 5 percentage points from the November poll, when Buttigieg was the first choice among 25 percent of likely caucus goers. Warren came in first among 16 percent of those polled, while Biden and Sanders were each the favorite of 15 percent at the time.

Yes, but: Sanders beat his competitors in Q4 fundraising, raking in $34.5 million — while Buttigieg followed at $24.7 million.

• Sanders' "anti-establishment message hasn’t changed for 50 years, and it resonates with working-class voters and young people who agree the system is corrupt and it will take a revolution to fix it," the New York Times' Sydney Ember wrote in December.

Go deeper: Bernie Sanders is the dominant Democrat of the Trump era

Editor's note: This piece has been updated to show that Sanders has gained momentum in the January poll.

Driving the news: MIT has released an unredacted version of the 61-page Goodwin Procter report into Epstein's donations to the university.

• The report recounts a 2013 conversation in which Ito suggested the swapped-donations strategy as a means to conceal the origin of Epstein money.
• The following year, Epstein took credit for a $2 million donation from Bill Gates and a $5 million donation from Leon Black, the co-founder of Apollo Global Management.

Gates denied to Goodwin Procter that his donation had anything to do with Epstein, while Black refused to talk to the law firm.

• "We were unable to connect with representatives of Mr Black," Goodwin Procter lead investigator Roberto Braceras tells Axios.
• Goodwin Procter managed to find no evidence that the Gates and Black donations were made at Epstein's behest, or that they represented Epstein money laundered via the billionaires.

On Friday, MIT announced that it had placed a mechanical engineering professor, Seth Lloyd, on paid administrative leave following the Goodwin Procter review, as Axios reported.

My thought bubble: MIT is currently putting together "a clear and comprehensive gift policy" and "a process to properly vet donors". But if the Leon Black donations were indeed Epstein-related — and there's no evidence to suggest that they weren't — the results of this investigation suggest that Epstein and Ito have already demonstrated an easy way to circumvent any such policies.

Go deeper: Exclusive: MIT and Jeffrey Epstein's billionaire enablers

What they're saying: The reason “comes down to what industries are expanding and which ones are contracting,” Megan Greene, a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, tells Axios.

• By the numbers: Women make up 22% of employees in goods-producing sectors (like mining, construction and manufacturing), as of last month.
• But they make up 54% of services-oriented jobs, including gigs in industries like health care and retail.
• The services sector is healthy, while manufacturing has seen pain from the trade war. Additionally, services make up a bigger chunk of the U.S. economy.

Other factors may also be at play. For one, the unemployment rate is at a half-century low, shrinking the pool of readily available workers and forcing companies to consider candidates they otherwise wouldn’t have.

Between the lines: Another employment survey of households by the Labor Department shows a persisting gap between men and women. By that measure, 84 million men say they have jobs, while 74 million women say are employed.

• "Men are more likely to hold jobs not counted on pay­rolls, in­clud­ing the self-em­ployed and farm la­bor­ers,” as the Journal notes. 
• “And women are more likely to hold multiple jobs.” A sin­gle per­son can be counted twice if they hold multiple jobs in the data shown above.

Go deeper:

• A more inclusive jobs rebound
• Black people are jumping back faster into the workforce

• Presidents have previously tried to uplift refugee resettlement programs with “bipartisan pride,” and to generate goodwill domestically and internationally, the Washington Post writes.
• Trump has already capped the number of refugees the U.S. will accept at a historic low of just 18,000 from a high of 110,000 in 2016.

What’s happening: Republican governors of Tennessee, South Dakota, Oklahoma and Nebraska along with others have written letters to the U.S. State Department or publicly announced they will continue accepting refugee resettlements, representing some of the reddest states in the country.

• They join more than two dozen other states that plan to continue taking refugees, according to Axios' compilation of news reports, press releases and public statements.
• Not all states have released their decisions.

Abbott has previously withdrawn Texas from the national refugee resettlement program and sued for the right to block Syrian refugees from settling in the state, the Texas Tribune reports.

• Meanwhile, Austin Mayor Steve Adler and Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price both called on Abbott to continue allowing refugees to settle in Texas.

Both Tennessee and North Dakota have also sued for the right to refuse refugee settlements, but have now both said they plan to continue accepting refugees.

Go deeper:

• Chart: How immigration levels in the U.S. have changed since 1900
• Refugee resettlement agencies sue Trump admin over executive order
• Trump lowering the number of refugees permitted into U.S. to 18,000