International Criminal Court moves closer to investigation of Israel

"There is a reasonable basis to believe that war crimes have been or are being committed in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip."

Why it matters: A formal investigation of Israel's actions in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza was long considered the "nuclear option." Such a decision could lead to international arrest warrants against Israeli officials and potentially U.S. sanctions against the international court.

Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda designated the alleged crimes she wants to investigate:

• Three incidents in which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) allegedly committed war crimes by intentionally launching disproportionate attacks during the 2014 Gaza war.
• Alleged war crimes committed by Hamas and other Palestinians terror organizations by intentionally directing attacks against civilians and using civilians as human shields during the 2014 Gaza war.
• Alleged war crimes by Israeli officials who were involved in the transfer of Israeli civilians into the West Bank since June, 2014.
• The IDF's use of lethal means — beginning in March, 2018 — against protesters near the border fence between the Gaza Strip and Israel.

Driving the news: Bensouda stressed that she does consider Palestine to be a state and thinks the court’s territorial jurisdiction extends to Palestinian territory occupied by Israel.

• But she wrote that — due to the unique history and circumstances of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the fact that Palestine does not have full control over its territory and that the borders are disputed — she wants the judges to rule on the scope of the Court’s territorial jurisdiction.

Flashback: The Palestinian Authority turned to the court in 2014 after a peace initiative led by Secretary of State John Kerry broke down.

• The Palestinians issued two complaints against Israel — the first regarding the 2014 Gaza war and the second regarding the building of Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
• The Israeli government has countered pressure from the Palestinians to open an investigation by claiming the Hague-based court has no jurisdiction in the Israeli-Palestinian case — mainly due to the fact that Palestine is not a state.

Several hours before the prosecutor’s announcement, Israel published a comprehensive legal opinion from the Israeli attorney general claiming the ICC has no jurisdiction.

• The main point in the attorney general’s legal opinion is that only sovereign states can delegate criminal jurisdiction to the court and the Palestinian Authority clearly does not meet the criteria for statehood under international law.
• Another point is that Israel has valid legal claims over the same territory and both sides agreed in the past to resolve their dispute through negotiations.

What’s next: The next 120 days are expected to turn into a legal battle between Israel and the Palestinians to convince the judges to rule in their favor. The prosecutor wrote that both parties, relevant victims and other states and interested entities may address the judges.  

• Officials evacuated tens of thousands of people largely in coastal regions of southeastern New South Wales and Victoria ahead of the increased danger expected over the weekend, per the Washington Post.

The state of play: A statewide total fire ban is still in place for NSW, where high heat and winds have exacerbated fire conditions, per the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) — confirming officials' fears of conditions deteriorating over this weekend. There are 148 fires burning across NSW, 64 of which are not contained.

• A 47-year-old man died defending a friend's rural NSW property on Saturday morning, authorities confirmed. (All times listed are in AEDT.)
• Strong gusts moving southeast, where most of the state's fires are raging, were forecast by the BOM into early Sunday, when "damaging" winds of up to 40 mph hit coastal suburbs of Sydney, Wollongong, Port Kembla and Kiama,
• After a day of "significant fire weather for eastern Victoria and New South Wales, today milder conditions will be more favourable for our emergency service partners and for affected communities," the BOM said Sunday afternoon. The NSW Rural Fire Service said the threat is "still not over."

In Victoria, evacuation orders were issued in the afternoon for fire-threatened communities in the east of the state, where seven people are missing.

In South Australia, a 78-year-old father and his 43-year-old son were killed in a blaze Saturday morning on Kangaroo Island, where over 150,000 acres of land has burned, The Advertiser reports.

In New Zealand, Police issued a statement urging people not call the emergency number "to report the orange haze in the sky caused by the Australian bush fires" after taking several calls on the issue.

The big picture: Morrison announced Sunday the establishment of the National Bushfire Recovery Agency from the media.

• Australia is calling on 3,000 Defense Force Reservists to help fight the fires, Morrison said earlier. He was later forced to defend his leadership after it emerged the NSW fire chief learned from the media about the deployment plans.
• A fundraiser by Australian comedian Celeste Barber for NSW rural fighters has raised over AU$20 million (U.S.$ 13 million) in 48 hours. People across Australia and the world have pledged money to Aussie firefighting brigades, including the U.S. singer P!nk.

Go deeper:

• In photos: Deadly wildfires rage across Australia
• Australia's wildfires cause New Zealand glaciers to turn brown

Editor's note: This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates.

Why it matters: The drone strike that resulted in Soleimani's death is the most direct confrontation from the U.S. since the Trump administration pulled out of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran has vowed to take revenge, according to IRNA.

• Experts including Ryan Goodman, the former special counsel at the Department of Defense, have pointed out that attacking cultural sites is a war crime.
• Trump has faced criticism over the strike that killed Soleimani from some world leaders and members of Congress, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The big picture: The body of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani has arrived back in Iran, as President Trump issued fresh threats against Iran over Saturday night.

• A funeral procession began in Ahvaz Sunday for Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis after their bodies in the southern Iranian city, a senior Iraqi-Iranian militia commander who also died in the U.S. strike in Iraq Friday, per the official IRNA, which reports their bodies will be transferred to other cities in Iran, including Tehran.
• Iraqi officials and Iranian-backed militias reported another deadly airstrike in Iraq 24 hours after the U.S. killed Soleimani, AP reports. It left five dead, as thousands gathered in Baghdad Saturday to mourn Soleimani and al-Muhandis.
• On Saturday, several rockets fell inside Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, the Jadriya neighborhood and the Balad airbase housing U.S. troops, but there were no reported deaths, the Iraqi military said, per Al Jazeera.
• Iraq's parliament is holding an emergency session Sunday, Reuters reports.
• NATO has suspended training missions in Iraq after Soleimani's death, citing security concerns, the Washington Post reports.

The decision to strike: U.S. officials say they acted following the death of an American contractor the Friday before Christmas in Iraq by Iranian-sponsored militia groups. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed Soleimani was "actively" planning an attack on Americans, the Washington Post reports.

• Trump said he's not looking to change the Iranian regime, per the New York Times.

Global reaction:

• Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who formally resigned a month ago, said the attack will lead to a "dangerous escalation," NPR reports.
• Russia condemned the attack and blasted the Trump administration for refusing to use official channels, such as turning to the UN Security Council following protests at American embassies in Iraq, per NPR.
• U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the Royal Navy was escorting British-flagged vessels in the Persian Gulf and that under international law, "the United States is entitled to defend itself against those posing an imminent threat to its citizens."
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supported the U.S. and said, "Qassim Soleimani is responsible for the deaths of many American citizens and many other innocent people," the BBC reports.
• China appealed for restraint on all sides, but added, "The dangerous [U.S.] military operation violates the basic norms of international relations and will aggravate regional tensions and turbulence," per Al Jazeera.

What to watch: Iran is "likely" to launch a cyberattack against the U.S. following the death of Soleimani, AP reports.

• The disruptions could target American manufacturing facilities, oil and gas plants and transit systems. U.S. cybersecurity officials warn businesses and government agencies to be cautious, per AP.

What's next: The White House is preparing to present partners and allies with intelligence on the "imminent threat" it says prompted this attack, said Kirsten Fontenrose, who served on the National Security Council earlier in the Trump administration, during an Atlantic Council conference call.

• The administration is sending more U.S. troops to the region, with roughly 3,500 troops in Fort Bragg, N.C. preparing to go to Kuwait.

Go deeper:

• The next move on Iran
• How Trump decided to kill Iran's Soleimani

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comments by Trump, Pelosi and Wallace.

• A Kenyan military official told Reuters Al-Shabab was behind the raid.
• Al Shabab claimed the attack caused "severe casualties on both American and Kenyan troops stationed there," per Al Jazeera. This claim was unconfirmed.
• The Kenya Defence Forces statement said the "attempted breach" was "successfully repulsed," the Manda Air Strip was safe and that "four terrorist bodies have so far been found."

Go deeper: Don't forget al Qaeda

Editor's note: This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates.

Driving the news: New South Wales Rural Fire Services Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons told 9News he was "disappointed" and "frustrated" to learn of the troop deployment announced by Morrison via media reports.

What he's saying: Morrison said during a news conference a "breakdown in communications" was to blame for Fitzsimmons not being told.

• "There has been a lot of blame being thrown around," Morrison said. "And now is the time to focus on the response that is being made. ... Blame doesn’t help anybody at this time and over-analysis of these things is not a productive exercise."
• Morrison also said there's "no dispute" about the issue of climate change globally "and its effect on global weather patterns and that includes how it impacts in Australia.

"I have to correct the record here. I have seen a number of people suggest that somehow the government does not make this connection. The government has always made this connection and that has never been in dispute."

Go deeper: Australia's deadly fires: What you need to know

Go deeper: The next move on Iran

• Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said he considers the move an "act of aggression against Iraq" that would "light the fuse of war."

Trump issued a warning to Iran on Saturday evening, tweeting that the U.S. has "targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 Americans taken in the Iran hostage crisis of 1979-1981)" and that the United States will strike "if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets."

What else he's saying:

"Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently....

....hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have.....

....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!"

Details: The 1973 War Powers Act gives the president 48 hours to report to lawmakers the act of introducing military forces into armed conflict overseas.

• Trump claimed on Friday that the U.S. drone strike that killed Soleimani was not intended to start a war.

Go deeper: Sanders, Ro Khanna push to block funds for military force against Iran

• This swap makes former Central Liaison Office head Wang Zhimin the first senior official to lose his title after the protests, per the NYT. Luo has served as the Communist Party secretary in two provinces.
• China said it would introduce steps to "safeguard national security" in Hong Kong in November, but did not provide specifics.

Between the lines: Wang "made no move to stop scheduled elections for neighborhood district councils in November, in the mistaken confidence that pro-Beijing candidates would maintain their longstanding dominance," per the Times.

• But, pro-democracy candidates defeated pro-Beijing candidates by a landslide amid record voter turnout.

Our thought bubble: The Chinese Communist Party's mismanagement of Hong Kong has plunged it into a months-long political crisis, as massive protests have torn apart the city's social fabric and crippled its economy.

• It's clear that Chinese President Xi Jinping has drawn a hard line, refusing to meet protester's demands for police accountability and the resignation of Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam.
• This swap could be the latest step toward the "mainlandization" of a Chinese city that has traditionally enjoyed far greater political and civil freedoms than its mainland counterparts.

Go deeper: Trump signs bill expressing support for Hong Kong protesters