Key global warming target slipping out of reach, UN scientists warn

The special report was requested by world governments in 2018, following the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement. That agreement calls for countries to limit global warming to "well below 2°C" of warming, relative to preindustrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C of warming.

A team of 91 scientists from around the world reviewed over 6,000 studies and 42,000 peer review comments to produce this report.

The report found that the effects of global warming are already being felt around the world, particularly by poor and vulnerable populations, and that these impacts will only grow. “The lower we can keep global warming, the less the impacts will be," IPCC co-author Natalie Mahowald told reporters on Sunday.

• For nearly every global warming impact, from droughts to sea level rise, the report finds that adhering to just 1.5°C of warming would make a major, concrete difference for millions of people and hundreds, if not thousands, of species.

Since the last major IPCC assessment in 2014, it's become clearer that global carbon emissions have not yet made 1.5°C of warming inevitable. However, if present emissions trends continue, that target will likely be hit around 2040, the report states.

Threat level: The differences in impacts between 1.5°C of warming and 2°C, or 3.6°F, of warming are significant, the report found:

• There would be less of a risk for irreversible changes, including ecosystem losses and the destabilization of parts of Greenland and Antarctica, at 1.5°C of warming compared to 2°C.
• By 2100, sea level rise is expected to be about .1 meter, or 4 inches, lower under the lower global warming amount compared to a 2-degree scenario. That may sound small, but the report states this translates to 10 million fewer people exposed to flood risks, based on 2010 population levels.
• Huge amounts of carbon and methane are locked up in frozen soil in the Arctic, which is thawing as temperatures increase. Limiting warming to 1.5°C, as compared to 2°C, would prevent 1.5 to 2.5 million square kilometers of permafrost from thawing, the report finds.
• The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2 degrees.

Yes, but: Meeting the 1.5-degree target would require a Herculean effort to transform how we generate and use energy, invent new ways to store carbon, slash non-carbon greenhouse gases like methane and drastically scale up renewable energy sources.

The report presents several energy "pathways," or scenarios, in which the climate would not warm by much more than 1.5 degrees through the year 2100.

• Greenhouse gas emissions would need to be cut by about 45% by 2030, relative to 2010 levels.
• Emissions would need to decline to net zero in 2050, and in some scenarios be negative by the year 2100.
• Some of these scenarios require a role for cutting-edge carbon sequestration technologies that are currently in their infancy, including direct air capture.

The report will now inform the next round of UN climate talks in Poland in December.

"The message is, over to governments at this stage, we've told you the scientific facts, the evidence, the costs. It is up to the governments now to decide what to do with it."

Go deeper: UN report: Massive changes needed to stem warming; The stark reality of the IPCC's 1.5-degree climate report

Yes, but: Spacewalks are notorious for their complexity, so it's still possible that Koch and Meir's walk could change or be cancelled if something unexpected happens between now and October 21.

Details: The spacewalk is 1 of 5 planned to swap out batteries, with 5 others planned for later in the year to repair an astrophysics instrument on the outside of the station.

• The first spacewalk in the series is scheduled for Sunday. Koch and NASA astronaut Andrew Morgan are expected to start the walk at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Background: The spacewalk comes after NASA canceled an all-female spacewalk in March due to spacesuit availability.

• That particular issue shouldn't be a problem this time, however, with two spacesuits configured for use by the women.

The latest: New York's health commissioner announced Thursday morning that "there are no longer any active cases in New York State associated with the initial measles outbreak from October 2018."

• But the commissioner added that New York health officials remain "vigilant" and are currently investigating several other new cases that are unrelated to the outbreak that just ended.
• 1 of the new cases is a person who just returned from overseas to Rockland County, which had declared in September that its initial outbreak had officially ended. Because this new case was "imported" from someone traveling in another country, this is not considered to be part of the same outbreak.
• Several other New York cases were reported in Nassau (2), Monroe (2) and Putnam (1) counties, according to the health commissioner.
• Meanwhile, the CDC says 31 states reported 1,243 individual patients, 131 of whom were hospitalized and 65 of whom suffered complications, including pneumonia and encephalitis. No one died in the U.S.

"The end of the New York state measles outbreak is a credit to the great work by local and state health departments, community and religious leaders, and other partners. However, this outbreak is a grave reminder that we need heightened vigilance around measles as well as other vaccine preventable diseases, and we continue to address the myths and misinformation driving these outbreaks."

What they're saying: Peter Hotez, professor of pediatrics and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, tells Axios that America's measles elimination status isn't as important as "the fact that we remain highly vulnerable" for 2 reasons.

1. There are "at least 100 geographic pockets in the U.S. where a high percentage of kids are not being vaccinated, together with measles cases now regularly imported from Europe where measles is even more widespread," Hotez says.
2. During the first and second quarter of next year, "we’ll again hit peak measles transmission season. [The] bottom line [is] nothing has really been done to combat the anti-vaccine movement in America, and we’re just as vulnerable to measles epidemics as we were this time last year."

What's next: The CDC and the Department of Health and Human Services are expected to have further information on the measles outbreak on Friday.

• The Pan American Health Organization’s regional verification commission will meet in the coming months to look over the U.S. data from this year and likely 2018 to make the final determination on the U.S.' elimination status, the CDC spokesperson said.
• PAHO declared recently that the U.K., Albania, the Czech Republic and Greece had lost their measles-free status.

Go deeper:

• Anti-vax movement targets Maine law on vaccine exemptions
• New measles cases decline in U.S., but the outbreak isn't over yet
• Measles in U.S. creeps back toward endemic status

Details: In the letter published Oct. 2 in the New England Journal of Medicine, researchers reviewed lung biopsies from 17 patients, "all of whom had vaped and were suspected to have vaping-associated lung injury," the Mayo Clinic said.

• Lipids, fatty substances found in mineral oils were suspected as a possible cause of the lung injuries associated with vaping, but the researchers in this study found no evidence of this causing the tissue injury.

"While we can't discount the potential role of lipids, we have not seen anything to suggest this is a problem caused by lipid accumulation in the lungs. Instead, it seems to be some kind of direct chemical injury, similar to what one might see with exposures to toxic chemical fumes, poisonous gases and toxic agent."

Go deeper: U.S. investigates fatality from vaping as lung-related illnesses rise